Tóm tắt Luận án Climate change vulnerability assessment on agriculture production. pilot application for some provinces in the red river delta

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION 
AND TRAINING 
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE 
AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT 
VIETNAM ACADEMY FOR WATER RESOURCES 
HA HAI DUONG 
CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ON 
AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION. PILOT APPLICATION FOR 
SOME PROVINCES IN THE RED RIVER DELTA 
SUMMARY OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY THESIS 
Specialization: Water Resources Engineering 
Code : 62 58 02 12 
HANOI, 2014 
This work has been completed at: 
VIETNAM ACADEMY FOR WATER RESOURCES 
Scientific supervisors: 
1. Prof., Dr. Tran Thuc - Vietnam Institute of 
Meteorology Hydrology and Environment 
2. Prof., Dr. Lars Ribbe – Cologne University of 
Applied Science, Germany 
Judge 1: Assoc., Prof., Dr. Tran Viet On 
 Water Resources University 
Judge 2: Assoc., Prof., Dr. Hoang Thai Dai 
 Hanoi University of Agriculture 
Judge 3: Assoc., Prof., Dr. Nguyen Van Tinh 
 Directorate of Water Resources - MARD 
The Thesis shall be defended against State level thesis assessment 
council held at: Vietnam Academy for Water Resources, No 171 Tay 
Son street, Dong Da district, Hanoi, Vietnam. 
At  hours, on day..month.. 2014. 
The Thesis can be further referred to at: 
- National Library of Vietnam; 
- Library of Vietnam Academy for Water Resources; 
- Library for Institute for Water and Environment.
1 
PREFACE 
I. Research purposes 
Develop a method to assess the vulnerability caused by 
climate change on rice production; 
Assess the vulnerability caused by climate change on rice 
production in Nam Dinh, Hai Phong, Ha Nam and Hai Duong 
provinces. 
II. The scientific significance of the thesis 
In term of academy, the climate change vulnerability 
assessment method has been supplemented and completed, especially 
focus much on community level; 
Provide a set of indicator for assessing vulnerability to 
climate change on agriculture production; 
Provide a process to calculate sub-indices and main indices 
of climate change vulnerability index; 
Provide a basic methodology to develop the support software 
that to be recommended to apply for other relevant research. 
III. The practical significance of the thesis 
Establish a method and tool supporting for assessment and 
determination of the most vulnerable province and applied 
practically for 04 provinces as Ha Nam, Nam Dinh, Hai Phong and 
Hai Duong; 
Pilot application for 04 provinces as Ha Nam, Nam Dinh, 
Hai Phong and Hai Duong to determine which province is the most 
vulnerable to climate change. 
IV. The new points of the thesis 
Establish a method with the unified process to assess the 
vulnerability to climate change on agriculture production; 
Establish the sub-indicators and main indicators of 
vulnerability to climate change on water demand for crop; 
Develop the set of indices and maps of climate change 
vulnerability on water demand for crop in pilot provinces; 
Develop the Climate Vulnerability Assessment Support 
Software (CVASS) 
2 
CHAPTER I. LITERATURE REVIEW ON THE 
METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING VULNERABILITY TO 
CLIMATE CHANGE 
Based on the result of literature review on the methods and 
frameworks for assessing vulnerability to climate change in Vietnam 
and over the world, in general, it is recognized that the approach of 
most of vulnerability method and framework divided into 3 
categories as following: 
1.1. Top-down approach 
Top-down approach focuses much on climate-risks 
assessment for long-term such as decade and normally to year 2100 
and based on climate change scenarios. 
Typical methods and frameworks using this approach 
include 7-steps framework of IPCC, assessment method of NOAA. 
1.2. Bottom-up approach 
This approach has been applied in the recent years and 
supporting for top-down approach due to it based on local adaptive 
strategies and indigenous technologies and knowledge responding to 
current climate change. This approach is very useful for strategy 
development and policy implementation. 
Typical methods and frameworks using this approach 
include framework of National Adaptation Program of Action 
(NAPA), 5-steps method of America International and Cooperation 
Agency and Vietnam institutes and organizations such as Vietnam 
Red Cross, Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network, and 
Institute for Water and Environment 
1.3. General approach 
The combination of above two approaches is called general 
approach and this has been applied in the Australian government 
program for climate-risk assessment and adaptation plan in 
Mandurah, A Guide to Community Vulnerability and Adaptation 
Assessment and Action of Canadian International Agency, 
vulnerability assessment method based on MASSCOTE (FAO) and 
framework of Stockholm Environment Institute and Indian 
Technology Institute. 
3 
CHAPTER II. DEVELOPMENT OF METHOD AND 
PROCESSES FOR ASSESSING THE VULNERABILITY TO 
CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER DEMAND FOR CROP 
2.1. Development of method for assessing the vulnerability to 
climate change on water demand for crop 
2.1.1. Selection of vulnerability concept 
In term of concept, the thesis selected vulnerability concept 
of IPCC (2001) to develop method and vulnerability assessment 
processes. Therefore, according to this concept, vulnerability shall be 
expressed by the function of Exposure (E), Sensitivity (S) and 
Adaptation Capacity (AC). 
V = f(E, S, AC) 
2.1.2. Approach for method development 
The development of method for assessing the vulnerability to 
change has been based on problem solving diagram as following: 
(Figure 2.1): 
Figure 2.1: Problem solving diagram for method development 
2.1.3. Method for climate change vulnerability assessment 
According to vulnerability concept of IPCC, problem solving 
diagram mentioned above and the requirements of the method, the 
4 
thesis proposed a 5-steps method for assessing vulnerability to 
climate change on water demand for crop as following: 
Figure 2.2: Climate change vulnerability assessment method 
2.2. Processes and content of the method for assessing 
vulnerability to climate change on water demand for 
crop 
2.2.1. Step 1: Preparation 
Collection of secondary data; 
Identifying assessment scope: can be divided into two 
regions: (i) the region affected by climate change and sea level rise 
and (ii) the region affected by climate change without sea level rise. 
Selection of climate change and sea level rise scenarios: 
Applying scenarios corresponding to medium emission (B2) for the 
method as well as pilot assessment. 
Screening main impacts of climate change: Screening 
impacts of climate change in the research area is an important step to 
primarily determine the impacts of climate change in the pilot areas 
before conducting field assessment. 
2.2.2. Step 2: Field assessment 
- Preparation for field assessment including the activities such 
as: (i) Development of field assessment proposal, (ii) Selection of 
climate change and sea level rise scenarios; (iii) Identifying 
assessment scope; (iv) Preparation of tables and questionnaires for 
5 
data collection; and (v) Preparation of tools for assessment and data 
collection at community level. 
Processes for assessment at community level: Include following 
activities: 
Activity 1: Work with locality (province, district and commune); 
Activity 2: Establish partners group and to train them; 
Activity 3: Document and data collection; and 
Activity 4: Discuss with partner groups and local people. 
2.2.3. Step 3: Identifying vulnerability elements 
The content of step 3 is to collect data for calculating 
Exposure (E), Sensitivity (S) and Adaptive Capacity (AC) which will 
be used for constructing vulnerability index in step 4. The result of 
step 3 is collected data tables of sub-variables of exposure, 
sensitivity and adaptive capacity. 
2.2.4. Step 4: Constructing vulnerability index 
- Calculating vulnerability index; 
- Developing vulnerability maps and charts. 
2.2.5. Step 5: Assessing vulnerability to climate change 
The content of this step is to determine which 
province/district is the most vulnerability to climate change on water 
demand for crop and then proposing adaptive measures. 
2.3. Scientific research and algorithm applied to build 
Climate Vulnerability Assessment Support Software 
2.3.1. Assessment of vulnerability by index method 
The climate vulnerability index consists of three main 
indices including Exposure index (E), Sensitivity index (S) and 
Adaptive Capacity index (AC) and their sub-indices. 
2.3.2. Developing process to calculate vulnerability index; 
The calculation of vulnerability index, main indices and sub-
indices is presented by the diagram as following: 
6 
Figure 2.3: The diagram to calculate climate vulnerability index 
2.3.2.1. Normalization of collected data 
Collected data had been normalized by using Equation (1) 
and started at the lowest level as E11 ÷ E1n, En1 ÷ Enn, S11 ÷ S1n, Sn1 ÷ 
Snn, and AC11 ÷ AC1n, ACn1 ÷ ACnn: 
2.3.2.2. Identifying the weight of indices 
After normalizing collected data, it is necessary to identify 
the weight for each sub-index. In the scope of the thesis, the weights 
were identified by unequal weight method basing on the quantity of 
sub-variables. 
2.3.2.3. Calculating sub-variable indices 
As mentioned above, each main-variable could comprise of 
different sub-variables and each sub-variable could comprise of 
different correlative components, therefore, sub-variables indices can 
be calculated by Equation 2 as following: 
∑ 
2.3.2.4. Calculating main-variable indices 
∑ 
∑ 
2.3.2.5. Calculating climate vulnerability index 
7 
2.3.3. Process to identify and calculate vulnerability index 
According to contents and the equations mentioned above, 
the process to identify and calculate climate vulnerability index as 
well as the indices of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity is as 
followings: 
Figure 2.4: Process to calculate climate vulnerability index 
8 
2.3.4. Identifying Exposure index (E) 
Exposure index consists of 3 sub-indices as (i) Climate extreme event (E1); (ii) Change in climatic 
variables (E2); and (iii) Sea level rise (E3). Each sub-index is expressed by the indicators as following: 
Sub-
component 
Indicator Unit 
Source 
Present 2030 
Climate 
extreme 
event (E1) 
Number of annual average of 10-scale storm (E11) Event Statistic Assume 
Number of annual average of flood (E12) Event Statistic Assume 
Number of annual average of drought (E13) Event Statistic Assume 
Change in 
climatic 
variables 
(E2) 
Average of yearly maximum rainfall (E21) mm Statistic CC Scenarios 
Average of yearly minimum rainfall (E22) mm Statistic CC Scenarios 
Average of yearly maximum temperature (E23) T
o
 Statistic CC Scenarios 
Average of yearly minimum temperature (E24) T
o
 Statistic CC Scenarios 
Total of potential evapotranspiration (E25) % Statistic CC Scenarios 
Sea level 
rise (E3) 
Sea level rise (E31) cm Statistic CC Scenarios 
9 
2.3.5. Identifying Sensitivity index (S) 
Sensitivity index consists of 4 sub-indices as (i) Land use (S1); (ii) Water sources (S2); (iii) Labour 
and income (S3); and (iv) Affected by climate extreme events (S4). Each sub-index is expressed by the 
indicators as following: 
Sub-component Indicator Unit 
Source 
Present 2030 
Land use (S1) 
Land use for crop (S11) ha Statistic LUP 
Irrigated land use for crop (S12) ha Statistic IDP 
Water sources 
(S2) 
Total water flow at headwork (S21) m
3
 Calculation Calculation 
Water demand for crop (S22) m
3
 Calculation Calculation 
Operational effectiveness of head-works 
(S23) 
% Calculation Calculation 
Labour and 
income (S3) 
Rate of agriculture population (S31) % Statistic SDP 
Total of poverty households (S32) Houshold Statistic SDP 
Total income from crop production (S33) VND Statistic SDP 
Affected by 
climate extreme 
events (S4) 
Total land for crop affected by storm (S41) ha Statistic Assume 
Total land for crop affected by drought (S42) ha Calculation Calculation 
Flood level (S43) ha Calculation Calculation 
Maximum length of saline intrusion (S44) ha Calculation Calculation 
10 
2.3.6. Identifying Adaptive Capacity index (AC) 
Adaptive Capacity index consists of 3 sub-indices as (i) Infrastructure (AC1); (ii) Economy (AC2); 
and (iii) Society (AC3). Each sub-index is expressed by the indicators as following: 
Sub-
component 
Indicator Unit 
Source 
Present 2030 
Infrastruct
ure (AC
1
) 
Rate of concreted irrigation system (AC
11
) % Statistic IDP 
Rate of concreted rural road system (AC
12
) % Statistic SDP 
Rate of concreted on-farm road system (AC
13
) % Statistic SDP 
Rate of mechanization in agriculture production (AC
14
) % Statistic SDP 
Economy 
(AC
2
) 
Rate of investment in agriculture production (AC
21
) % Statistic SDP 
Investment in improvement of head-works (AC
22
) VND Calculation Calculation 
Investment in improvement of irrigation system (AC
23
) VND Calculation Calculation 
Society 
(AC
3
) 
GDP (AC
31
) 
Statistic SDP 
Human Development Index (AC
32
) 
Statistic SDP 
Remark: LUP: Land Use Plan; IDP: Irrigation Development Plan; SDP: Socioeconomic 
Development Plan. 
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2.4. Development of vulnerability assessment support 
software 
2.4.1. Basic functions of the software: 
Data base: Include all information, data, basic maps for 
calculating vulnerability index and developing vulnerability maps 
and charts. 
Calculation function: to calculate the indices of exposure 
(E), sensitivity (S), adaptive capacity (AC) and climate vulnerability 
index (CVI). 
Result display function: to display the table of indices, and 
relevant vulnerability maps and charts. 
2.4.2. Block diagram of CVASS software 
Figure 2.5: Block diagram of CVASS software 
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CHAPTER III. THE RESULTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE 
VULNERABITILY ASSESSMENT ON WATER DEMAND 
FOR CROP IN SOME PILOT PROVINCES IN THE RED 
RIVER DELTA 
3.1. Selection of pilot areas and climate change scenarios 
3.1.1. Pilot areas selection 
Based on the natural conditions of each sub-area, the impacts 
of climate change and sea level rise in each province/city as well as 
the availability and feasibility of required input data, the following 
provinces have been selected for pilot assessment: 
- Area 1: Nam Dinh province (Giao Xuan and Giao Lac 
commune, Giao Thuy district) and Hai Phong province (Tan 
Trao commune, Kien Thuy district); 
- Area 2: Ha Nam province (Lien Son commune, Kim Bang 
district) and Hai Duong province (Tien Tien and Phuong 
Hoang commune, Thanh Ha district). 
3.1.2. Milestones for pilot application 
Currently, all provinces in Vietnam have established 
development strategy, socioeconomic development plan as well as 
agriculture development plan for the year of 2030; moreover, most of 
these provinces (including pilot provinces) have the Action Plan to 
responds to Climate change on agriculture sector. Therefore, the 
milestones for pilot assessment are at present and in 2030. 
13 
3.2. The results of climate change vulnerability assessment at 
provincial level 
3.2.1. Index and map of exposure (E) at provincial level 
Table 3.1: Exposure index at provincial level 
Province 
Milestone 
Present Rank 2030 Rank 
Nam Dinh 0.322 3 0.384 4 
Hai Phong 0.626 1 0.697 1 
Ha Nam 0.493 2 0.493 2 
Hai Duong 0.256 4 0.399 3 
Remark: (Rank 1 4: High Low) 
Figure 3.1: Exposure map at provincial level 
14 
3.2.2. Index and map of sensitivity (S) at provincial level 
Table 3.2: Sensitivity index at provincial level 
Province 
Milestone 
Present Rank 2030 Present 
Nam Dinh 0.898 1 0.825 1 
Hai Phong 0.337 3 0.379 3 
Ha Nam 0.130 4 0.170 4 
Hai Duong 0.477 2 0.578 2 
 Remark: (Rank 1 4: High Low) 
Figure 3.2: Sensitivity map at provincial level 
15 
3.2.3. Index and map of adaptive capacity (AC) at provincial level 
Table 3.3: Adaptive Capacity index at provincial level 
Province 
Milestone 
Present Rank 2030 Rank 
Nam Dinh 0.556 2 0.659 1 
Hai Phong 0.414 3 0.413 3 
Ha Nam 0.389 4 0.392 4 
Hai Duong 0.601 1 0.579 2 
Remark: (Rank 1 4: High Low) 
Figure 3.3: Adaptive Capacity map at provincial level 
16 
3.2.4. Index and map of climate change vulnerability (CVI) at 
provincial level 
Table 3.4: Climate Vulnerability index at provincial level 
Province 
Milestone 
Present Rank 2030 Rank 
Nam Dinh 0.555 1 0.517 1 
Hai Phong 0.516 2 0.554 2 
Ha Nam 0.411 3 0.424 4 
Hai Duong 0.377 4 0.466 3 
 Remark: (Rank 1 4: High Low) 
Figure 3.4: Climate Vulnerability map at provincial level 
17 
3.3. The results of climate change vulnerability assessment at community level 
3.3.1. The result of index calculation 
Table 3.5: The indices of E, S, AC and CVI at community level in present 
Commune 
Present 
E Rank S Rank AC Rank CVI Rank 
Tan Trao 0,700 1 0,432 5 0,535 6 0,533 1 
Giao Lac 0,322 3 0,754 1 0,627 4 0,483 2 
Giao Xuan 0,322 3 0,616 2 0,635 3 0,435 3 
Tien Tien 0,256 4 0,604 3 0,697 1 0,388 5 
Phuong Hoang 0,256 4 0,583 4 0,684 2 0,385 6 
Lien Sơn 0,493 2 0,251 6 0,536 5 0,403 4 
Table 3.6: The indices of E, S, AC and CVI at community level in year 2030 
Commune 
Year 2030 
E Rank S Rank AC Rank CVI Rank 
Tan Trao 0,697 1 0,389 5 0,410 5 0,558 1 
Giao Lac 0,384 4 0,687 1 0,574 2 0,499 3 
Giao Xuan 0,384 4 0,560 4 0,506 3 0,479 5 
Tien Tien 0,399 3 0,633 2 0,584 1 0,483 4 
Phuong Hoang 0,399 3 0,612 3 0,409 6 0,534 2 
Lien Sơn 0,493 2 0,222 6 0,439 4 0,425 6 
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3.3.2. Climate change vulnerability at community level 
Figure 3.5: Exposure chart at community level 
Figure 3.6: Sensitivity chart at community level 
19 
Figure 3.6: Adaptive Capacity chart at community level 
Figure 3.7: Climate Vulnerability chart at community level 
20 
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMEND FOR FURTHER STUDY 
I. Conclusion 
According to scientific basic and the results of literature 
review on the methods and frameworks for assessing vulnerability to 
climate change in Vietnam and over the world, the thesis had 
developed a method for assessing vulnerability to climate change 
on water demand for crop. 
In order to support to vulnerability assessment, a tool 
(Climate Vulnerability Assessment Support Software - CVASS) has 
been also developed. Besides, the set of 30 indicators of exposure, 
sensitivity and adaptive capacity had proposed for calculating 
climate vulnerability index. 
Depending on scale and scope of pilot assessment, some 
typical indicators had calculated by supplementary tool and 
mathematic model before using CVASS software. 
Based on equations (1), (2), (3) and (4) with the set of 
indicators mentioned above, use CVASS software to calculate the 
indices of exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity and climate 
vulnerability index. With these indices, the development of 
vulnerability map and chart has simplified by using CVASS software 
in order to provide the results with more visual for vulnerability 
assessment. 
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II. Recommends for further study 
2.1. Recommends for developed method 
The adaptive measures to responds to climate change at 
community level must be feasibility and high reality. 
It is required to check information and data for climate 
assessment collected at community with those at the higher level. 
 The set of indicators (30 indicators) within the thesis are 
only representative indicators of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive 
capacity. Therefore, it is recommended for further study on 
identifying maximum of indicators for relevant studies. 
It is requires for further study on weighting calculation, the 
variation and deviation of weights when using different weighting 
methods 
In some special case, if the statistic data is not available the 
relevant supplement models should be applied to calculate the 
indicator variables before using CVASS. 
2.2. Recommends for CVASS software 
In the future, it is required to update data base for all 
provinces of Vietnam. 
It is requires for further study on integrating relevant models, 
software such as Cropwat, Mike, DSSAT into CVASS software to 
become a module of this software. 
It is very necessary to increase colour band of display 
module of CVASS software in order to display maps and charts with 
more clear and visual. 
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PUBLICATION RELATED TO THE THESIS 
1. Nguyen Tuan Anh, Ha Hai Duong, Nguyen Xuan Lam. The 
measures to upgrade irrigation system for new rural development 
in coastal areas in the Red river delta. Journal of Water 
Resources Science and Technology No 18. (9/2013), p.79. 
2. Ha Hai Duong et al. Qualitative assessment of vulnerability to 
climate changes. Journal of Water Resources Science and 
Technology No 7. (3/2012), p.18. 
3. Ha Hai Duong, Nguyen Quang An, Dinh Thuy Linh, 2012, 
“Part 5: Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources, 
Irrigation and Drainage.” Climate Change Impacts on 
Agricultural sectors and Adaptation Measures, Agriculture 
Publication, Hanoi, 42 pp. 
4. Ha Hai Duong et al. Climate change impacts on water resources 
systems in Vietnam; Adaptive policies and measures to respond 
to these impacts. Journal of Agricultural and Rural Development 
– Special topic on Climate Change and Adaptive Measures 
(4/2011). 
5. Ha Hai Duong. Literature review on the methodology to assess 
the vulnerabilities caused by climate change. Journal of Water 
Resources Science and Technology No 22. (7/2009), p.101. 
6. Ha Hai Duong et al. Climate Change and Adaptive Capacity in 
Quy Nhon City, Binh Dinh province. Journal of Water 
Resources Science and Technology No 23. (7/2009), p.46.